Arrived= Transportation Survival*Inspected origin ~ ~ | Treated= Tratment Survival*Containers ~ ~ | Containers= PULSE TRAIN(0,0.0625 ,1/"consegnments/year" ,10000 )*"Harvested prevalence (%)"*"units/consignment" ~ ~ | Established= IF THEN ELSE("Prob. Establishment"*Host<1,0 ,"Prob. Establishment"*Host ) ~ ~ | "Prob. Establishment"= RANDOM UNIFORM(MAX(Average7-(Average7*Variability7/100),0), MIN(Average7+(Average7*Variability7\ /100),1 ), 0 ) ~ ~ | "Prob. Gets to Host"= RANDOM UNIFORM(MAX(Average6-(Average6*Variability6/100),0), MIN(Average6+(Average6*Variability6\ /100),1 ) ,0 ) ~ ~ | Shelf= Shelf Survival*Inspected Destination ~ ~ | Shelf Survival= RANDOM UNIFORM(MAX(Average5-(Average5*Variability5/100),0), MIN(Average5+(Average5*Variability5\ /100),1 ), 0) ~ ~ | Transportation Survival= RANDOM UNIFORM(MAX(Average4-(Average4*Variability4/100),0), MIN(Average4+(Average4*Variability4\ /100),1 ) ,0 ) ~ ~ | Confidence Level2= 1-(1-MIN("N.Samples2","units/consignment")/"units/consignment")^(Arrived) ~ ~ | Inspected Destination= (1-Confidence Level2)*Arrived ~ ~ | "Harvested prevalence (%)"= Harvest Survival*"Field Prevalence(%)" ~ ~ | Host= "Prob. Gets to Host"*Shelf ~ ~ | Tratment Survival= RANDOM UNIFORM(MAX(Average3-(Average3*Variability3/100),0), MIN(Average3+(Average3*Variability3\ /100),1 ) , 0 ) ~ ~ | Harvest Survival= RANDOM UNIFORM(MAX(Average2-(Average2*Variability2/100),0), MIN(Average2+(Average2*Variability2\ /100),1 ) ,0 ) ~ ~ | NOISE SEED= 1 ~ [1,100000,1] ~ | "consegnments/year"= 2 ~ [0,12,1] ~ | Confidence Level1= 1-(1-MIN("N. samples1","units/consignment")/"units/consignment")^(Treated) ~ ~ | Inspected origin= (1-Confidence Level1)*Treated ~ ~ | Average1= 0.3 ~ [0,1,0.01] ~ | Average4= 0.9 ~ [0,1,0.01] ~ | Average5= 0.9 ~ [0,1,0.01] ~ | Average6= 0.1 ~ [0,1,0.01] ~ | Average7= 0.8 ~ [0,1,0.01] ~ | "N. samples1"= 30 ~ [1,1000,1] ~ | "N.Samples2"= 30 ~ [1,1000,1] ~ | "Field Prevalence(%)"= RANDOM UNIFORM(MAX(Average1-(Average1*Variability1/100),0), MIN(Average1+(Average1*Variability1\ /100),1 ) ,0 ) ~ ~ | Average2= 0.7 ~ [0,1,0.01] ~ | Average3= 0.01 ~ [0,1,0.002] ~ | "units/consignment"= 10000 ~ [0,100000,1000] ~ | Variability1= 10 ~ [0,100,10] ~ | Variability2= 10 ~ [0,100,10] ~ | Variability3= 10 ~ [0,100,10] ~ | Variability4= 10 ~ [0,100,10] ~ | Variability5= 10 ~ [0,100] ~ | Variability6= 10 ~ [0,100,10] ~ | Variability7= 10 ~ [0,100,10] ~ | ******************************************************** .Control ********************************************************~ Simulation Control Parameters | FINAL TIME = 10 ~ Year ~ The final time for the simulation. | INITIAL TIME = 0 ~ Year ~ The initial time for the simulation. | SAVEPER = TIME STEP ~ Year [0,?] ~ The frequency with which output is stored. | TIME STEP = 0.0625 ~ Year [0,?] ~ The time step for the simulation. | \\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names V300 Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored *View 1 $192-192-192,0,Times New Roman|12||0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-255|-1--1--1|-1--1--1|96,96,100 10,1,"Harvested prevalence (%)",157,87,35,25,3,3,0,45,0,3,0,0,0-0-128,192-255-255,Arial|8||0-0-0 10,2,Treated,397,89,35,26,3,3,0,45,0,3,0,0,0-64-0,192-255-255,Arial|8||0-0-0 10,3,Arrived,555,175,34,22,3,3,0,45,0,3,0,0,0-64-0,192-255-192,Arial|8||0-0-0 10,4,Shelf,415,262,36,25,3,3,0,45,0,3,0,0,0-64-0,192-255-192,Arial|8||0-0-0 10,5,Host,255,263,38,27,3,3,0,45,0,3,0,0,0-64-0,192-255-192,Arial|8||0-0-0 10,6,Established,52,265,41,27,3,3,0,45,0,3,0,0,255-0-0,192-255-192,Arial|8||0-0-0 10,7,Harvest Survival,152,35,40,8,8,3,0,42,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,192-255-192,Arial|8||128-0-0 10,8,Tratment Survival,388,32,44,8,0,3,0,46,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,192-255-192,Arial|8||128-0-0 10,9,"Prob. Gets to Host",256,323,44,8,8,3,0,40,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,255-255-128,Arial|8||128-0-0 10,10,"Prob. Establishment",46,328,49,8,8,3,0,40,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,255-255-128,Arial|8||0-0-0 10,11,Average2,114,-18,25,8,8,3,0,40,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,Arial|8||0-0-0 10,12,Variability2,208,-18,29,8,8,3,0,40,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,Arial|8||0-0-0 10,13,Average3,333,-20,25,8,8,3,0,40,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,Arial|8||0-0-0 10,14,Variability3,437,-19,29,8,8,3,0,40,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,Arial|8||0-0-0 10,15,Average6,204,353,25,8,8,3,0,40,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,Arial|8||0-0-0 10,16,Variability6,296,354,29,8,8,3,0,40,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,Arial|8||0-0-0 10,17,Average7,8,359,25,8,8,3,0,40,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,Arial|8||0-0-0 10,18,Variability7,121,356,29,8,8,3,0,40,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,Arial|8||0-0-0 1,19,11,7,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(128,2)| 1,20,12,7,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(185,3)| 1,21,13,8,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(354,1)| 1,22,14,8,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(417,1)| 1,23,15,9,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(223,341)| 1,24,16,9,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(281,342)| 1,25,17,10,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(21,347)| 1,26,18,10,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(90,344)| 10,27,Transportation Survival,650,181,45,18,8,3,0,42,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,192-255-192,Arial|8||128-0-0 10,28,Average4,656,121,25,8,8,3,0,40,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,Arial|8||0-0-0 10,29,Variability4,655,231,29,8,8,3,0,40,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,Arial|8||0-0-0 1,30,28,27,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(654,139)| 1,31,29,27,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(654,217)| 10,32,Shelf Survival,416,311,35,8,0,3,0,42,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,255-255-128,Arial|8||128-0-0 10,33,Average5,383,351,25,8,8,3,0,40,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,Arial|8||0-0-0 10,34,Variability5,476,350,29,8,8,3,0,40,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,Arial|8||0-0-0 1,35,33,32,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(394,336)| 1,36,34,32,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(451,334)| 10,37,"units/consignment",277,25,46,8,8,3,0,40,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,Arial|8||0-0-0 10,38,"consegnments/year",278,154,39,17,8,3,0,40,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,Arial|8||0-0-0 10,39,TIME STEP,725,-177,37,8,8,2,0,43,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,Arial|8||192-192-192 1,40,7,1,0,0,0,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|8||128-128-128,1|(152,45)| 1,41,8,2,0,0,0,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|8||128-128-128,1|(389,44)| 1,42,3,66,0,0,0,0,3,64,0,255-0-0,|8||128-128-128,1|(556,210)| 1,43,32,4,0,0,0,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|8||128-128-128,1|(415,302)| 1,44,9,5,0,0,0,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|8||128-128-128,1|(255,309)| 1,45,10,6,0,0,0,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|8||128-128-128,1|(46,312)| 10,46,"Field Prevalence(%)",42,86,36,26,3,3,0,45,0,3,0,0,0-0-128,192-255-255,Arial|8||0-0-0 10,47,Average1,40,16,25,8,8,3,0,40,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,Arial|8||0-0-0 10,48,Variability1,44,153,29,8,8,3,0,40,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,Arial|8||0-0-0 1,49,47,46,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(40,35)| 1,50,48,46,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(43,135)| 10,51,"N. samples1",549,-16,33,7,8,3,0,58,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,Arial|8|B|255-0-0 10,52,Confidence Level1,547,27,47,8,8,3,0,40,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,Arial|8||0-0-0 1,53,51,52,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(548,-1)| 10,54,"units/consignment",654,20,28,21,8,2,0,43,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,Arial|8||128-128-128 1,55,54,52,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(617,21)| 1,56,27,3,0,0,0,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|8||128-128-128,1|(603,178)| 10,57,Inspected origin,552,88,35,24,3,3,0,45,0,3,0,0,128-64-0,192-255-255,Arial|8||0-0-0 1,58,2,57,0,0,0,0,3,64,0,255-0-0,|8||0-0-0,1|(467,88)| 1,59,52,57,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(547,42)| 1,60,2,52,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(470,41)| 10,61,"N.Samples2",663,319,32,7,8,3,0,58,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,Arial|8|B|255-0-0 10,62,Confidence Level2,558,317,47,8,8,3,0,40,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,Arial|8||0-0-0 1,63,61,62,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(624,318)| 10,64,"units/consignment",608,382,56,8,8,2,0,43,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,Arial|8||128-128-128 1,65,64,62,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(587,355)| 10,66,Inspected Destination,559,263,34,25,3,3,0,45,0,3,0,0,128-64-0,192-255-192,Arial|8||0-0-0 1,67,62,66,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(558,305)| 1,68,3,62,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(624,269)| 10,69,NOISE SEED,433,163,37,9,8,3,0,8,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|10||0-0-0 10,70,Containers,277,89,36,26,3,3,0,45,0,3,0,0,0-0-128,192-255-255,Arial|8||0-0-0 1,71,1,70,0,0,0,0,3,64,0,255-0-0,|8||0-0-0,1|(209,87)| 1,72,70,2,0,0,0,0,3,64,0,255-0-0,|8||0-0-0,1|(330,89)| 1,73,37,70,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(277,41)| 1,74,46,1,0,0,0,0,3,64,0,255-0-0,|8||0-0-0,1|(93,86)| 1,75,57,3,0,0,0,0,3,64,0,255-0-0,|8||0-0-0,1|(552,125)| 1,76,38,70,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(277,132)| 1,77,66,4,0,0,0,0,3,64,0,255-0-0,|8||0-0-0,1|(494,262)| 1,78,4,5,0,0,0,0,3,64,0,255-0-0,|8||0-0-0,1|(343,262)| 1,79,5,6,0,0,0,0,3,64,0,255-0-0,|8||0-0-0,1|(161,263)| 12,80,0,159,-73,148,19,8,4,0,48,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,Arial|12|B|0-0-0 Production/Export - Import Chain 12,81,0,152,-52,113,15,8,4,0,56,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,Arial|9|I|0-0-0 R.Sgrillo (sgrillo@cepec.gov.br) 12,82,0,164,-69,143,31,3,0,0,0,-1,0,0,0 12,83,0,192,140,45,11,8,4,0,16,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|12|B|0-0-0 EXPORTER 12,84,0,289,217,46,11,8,4,0,16,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|12|B|0-0-0 IMPORTER ///---\\\ :GRAPH GRAPH :TITLE GRAPH :X-AXIS Time :SCALE :VAR pe1 :SCALE :VAR pe2 :L<%^E!@ 1:Current.vdf 9:Current 15:0,0,0,0,0,0 19:100,0 27:2, 4:Time 5:Established 24:0 25:10 26:10